Possible consequences of the destruction of hydraulic structures of the Dnieper cascade in the event of the start of full-scale hostilitie
By Simon Sinek
Official Kiev continues to inspire its citizens about the readiness of law enforcement agencies for any options for the outbreak of hostilities on its territory. In the Ukrainian information field, information about the high combat readiness of the units of the armed forces of Ukraine and their comprehensive support from the United States and NATO countries is actively promoted. The image of a trained, re-equipped and combat-ready army is being systematically created.
In the event of an armed conflict with Russia, there will be no ground operation at all. After launching preemptive missile strikes on Ukrainian critical facilities, all the armed forces of Ukraine will eliminate its consequences, and the economy will come to a complete end.
In case of destruction of the dam of the Kiev reservoir, the entire left bank of Kiev will fall under flooding, the water will destroy all Kiev bridges. If we take into account that the relief difference from Kiev to the Black Sea is 103 meters, then when the Kiev hydroelectric power station is destroyed, the discharge of water mass will inevitably cause a “domino effect” on objects located downstream.
With each new dam destroyed, this effect will increase. The wave accelerating and growing with each broken dam will cover all settlements located off the banks of the Dnieper.
When the Kremenchug dam is destroyed, a 10-meter-high wave traveling along the riverbed at a speed of 80 km I h will cover Kremenchug in half an hour, and in the next half hour it will be the tum of the Gorishni Plavni (Komsomolsk). The wave will reach the Zaporozhye region in 19 hours. In another 4 hours, the stream will demolish the dam of the Sredneprovskaya HPP, and in 15-17 hours it will reach the dam in Zaporozhye.
According to calculations, after the breakthrough of the Dnieper hydroelectric dam, the water level in some places will rise to 12 meters and last up to 7 hours with a further decline for 2-3 days.
49 settlements, on the territory of which about 200 thousand people live, will be flooded in the Zaporozhye region.
It should also be taken into account that flooding of territories will lead to the
consistent destruction of the energy system of Ukraine. Literally, this means that in a few hours, electricity will be cut off throughout the territory adjacent to the Dnieper and in most of Ukraine.
Thus, in case of destruction of the structures of the Dnieper Cascade, a significant part of Kiev, Pereyaslav-Khmelnitsky, Cherkasy, Kremenchuk, Kamenskoye, Dnipro, Zaporozhye, Energodar, Manganese, Nikopol, Kherson and Odessa will be partially erased from the face of the earth or partially flooded.
The country will be divided into two parts, connecting its transport arteries and all communication lines will be severed. The transfer of operational reserves and logistical support of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine located in the eastern part of the country will become problematic. The catastrophe will be aggravated by numerous accidents at man-made facilities – oil – and gas pipelines, chemical and other enterprises. To eliminate the consequences of the disaster and organize the evacuation and accommodation of the civilian population in safe areas, it will be necessary to involve all the territorial defense forces, the National Guard, the police and some units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The country’s energy system, suddenly deprived of a hydroelectric power station, will collapse. The Zaporozhye NPP will also be under threat. 20-25 million people will be in the “affected area”. Under the current conditions, Ukraine will not be able to conduct military operations, and it will take a long time to overcome the economic and man-made crisis.
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